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Trading in financial markets involves significant risk of loss which can exceed deposits and may not be suitable for all investors.
Before trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved
Trading in financial markets involves significant risk of loss which can exceed deposits and may not be suitable for all investors. Before trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved
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Portfolio Mix

Click on the dial to see the conservative, moderate & aggressive portfolio strategies.

Asset Allocation
10%
Equities
10%
Indices
10%
Forex
20%
Commodities
50%
Bonds
Note: This is for illustrative purposes only and there is no obligation to accept the asset allocation suggested by this tool
Instruments
Description
Trend
Trading Range
equites
Walt Disney Co
Trend
Range 139 - 160
News of a viable vaccine hitting the market in the coming months has given Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) a shot in the arm. The company is in the midst of a transformation from a television and movie theater-driven distribution model to a direct-to-consumer business. Disney will have three distinct content-production groups. First is studios, which includes Walt Disney Studios, Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm, and will make movies and series for theaters and streaming. Second is general entertainment, composed of ABC, Disney Channels, FX, National Geographic, and others. The third one is sports, responsible for content for broadcast on ABC and ESPN and for streaming on ESPN+. Walt Disney is changing its focus to streaming entertainment. It has the money to do so in a way that rivals Netflix, which should translate into ongoing subscriber growth. Estimates suggest that Disney will spend $27 billion on programming for the full year, or $18 billion excluding sports and news, which makes it a more powerful force in the space and more attractive to potential subscribers. Since launching last November, Disney+ had reached 60.5 million subscribers worldwide by August, beating analysts’ and Disney’s own forecasts. If the vaccine brings back normal life, that will be a big boost for its theme park and movie business.
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indeces
SPX 500 Cash
Trend
Range 3500 - 3750
Coronavirus cases are still rising and have touched record numbers in Europe and United States. Government officials in United States have issued advisories requesting Americans to avoid travel and large gatherings on the eve of Thanksgiving. The second wave of pandemic could trigger more economic lockdowns and some are even expecting a recession in the first quarter of the year. Well, markets got a taste of it when the US Labor Department reported 778,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 21, above expectations for 733,000 claims. It seems the resurgence of pandemic is triggering another wave of business closures. And it does not help that some of the last remaining US stimulus programs will expire by the end of December. This should pressure equities in the near term. Besides, challenges remain in form of mass production and distribution of the vaccine.
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forex
USD/JPY
Trend
Range 102.2 - 106
There are several reasons to suspect that USD/JPY may stay lower for longer. The obvious reason is broad-based USD weakness based upon Federal Reserve loosening. US Federal Reserve, in its latest in FOMC minutes, has laid open the prospect of adjusting the Quantitative Easing program if the economy deteriorates. Besides, the election of Joe Biden as President, considered as a moderate, has boosted hopes of better Trans-Atlantic relations and calming of trade tensions with China, the second-largest economy. This has reduced the demand for the US Dollar as it now behaves more like a safe haven asset. Meanwhile, the Japanese growth outlook favors the Yen. The fact that interest rates are now so low across the G10 changes the dynamic for domestic Japanese investors and this may enhance relative JPY strength going forward.
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commodities
Gold
Trend
Range 1690 - 1850
Gold is on track to book its worst month in four years witnessing losses of nearly 5% in November. Increasing optimism about a quick vaccine-fueled economic recovery and a smooth White House transition buoyed the risk-on trade and weighed on the metal this month. The fall in the metal came despite the broad-based weakness in Dollar. Meanwhile, reports that the EU and UK are close to a breakthrough on fishing rights and robust Chinese manufacturing data further weighed on the safe-haven metal. Moreover, US banking giants – Citi and Goldman Sachs lowered their gold-price forecasts for 2021, which resulted in further weakness in the metal. Technically, the metal has broken below the key 200 day moving average near $1800 mark and could witness further losses in the near term with next support seen near $1750- region followed by $1690.
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bonds
Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index
Trend
Range 80.8 - 85.2
Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index is a compelling option for exposure to short-term investment-grade corporate bonds. VCSH offers with only short-term bonds with an average duration of 2.8 years across the roughly 2,300 individual bonds in the portfolio. Chances are pretty low that firms like Goldman Sachs Group (GS) or Apple (AAPL) that make up this fund will disappear in the next year or two, so that makes this fund much less risky. The trade-off, of course, is a lower yield than many other bond ETFs. However, Fed’s new policy framework is likely to mean lower benchmark interest rates for longer and a potential pick-up in long dormant inflation. This is a perennial risk to long-term investors in bonds because it eats away at their returns and hence could lead to a boost in demand for short-term bonds.
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VanEck Vectors High-Yield Municipal Index ETF
Trend
Range 57.7 - 62.3
The investment seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Custom High Yield Composite Index. The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the benchmark index. The index is comprised of publicly traded municipal bonds that cover the U.S. dollar denominated high yield long-term tax-exempt bond market.Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Custom High Yield Composite Index (LMEHTR) is intended to track the overall performance of the U.S. dollar denominated high yield long-term tax-exempt bond market. It is comprised of highest-yielding municipal bonds with income generally exempt from federal taxes.
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iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF
Trend
Range 135 - 141
As part of its policy kit, the Fed announced that in addition to a Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility, it would also buy Investment Grade bonds in the secondary market. The Fed created a SPV that will purchase in the secondary market corporate debt issued by eligible issuers. What is more interesting is that the SPV will purchase eligible individual corporate bonds as well as eligible corporate bond portfolios in the form of exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the secondary market. In other words, The Fed Is Now Buying Investment Grade Bond ETFs like iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) which should boost their prices.
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iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Trend
Range 116.1 - 120.8
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF  (AGG) is one of the 10 largest ETFs on Wall Street and one of the most popular fixed-income options. This fund offers broad exposure to U.S. investment-grade bonds, including Treasury bonds, agency mortgage debt from government-backed entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and corporate bonds from highly-rated firms like Bank of America Corp. (BAC). There is built-in diversification and a focus on lower risk. AGG also offers a scale and liquidity that appeals to investors as the fund boasts almost $67 billion in assets and regularly trades north of 3 million shares each day.
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Data Source: Bloomberg

Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst

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The product and investment ideas do not consider the risk profile and financial position of the recipient and may not be suitable for everyone.
Trading in financial markets involves a significant risk of loss, which can exceed deposits. Please read the complete disclaimer carefully.
DISCLAIMER: Century Financial Consultancy LLC (“CFC”) is Limited Liability Company incorporated under the Laws of UAE and is duly licensed and regulated by the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority of UAE (SCA). This information is for illustrative proposes only and must not be construed to be an advice to invest or otherwise in any investment or financial product. CFC does not guarantee as to adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information or data contained herein and under no circumstances whatsoever none of such information or data be construed as an advice or trading strategy or recommendation to deal (Buy/Sell) in any investment or financial product. CFC is not responsible or liable for any result, gain or loss, based on this information, in whole or in part. Please refer to the disclaimer section of the website for full disclosure of the terms and conditions.
Risks & Assumptions
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The strategy might suffer from look-ahead bias which occurs due to use of information or data in a study or simulation that would not have been known or available during the period being analyzed. This can lead to inaccurate results in the study or simulation.
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Future price movements may not be exactly the same as the historical price movements and this could lead to variation in performance.
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Testing can sometimes lead to over-optimization. This is a condition where performance results are tuned so high to the past they are no longer as accurate in the future.
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The model assumes no slippages in trading. Slippage refers to the difference between the expected price of a trade and the price at which the trade is actually executed.
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Drawdowns in actual trading can be higher than the tested system and loses could significant in the event of leverage.
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Unforeseen events can lead to variation in performance from the tested trading strategy.
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The tested result has been computed with price feeds available from Bloomberg.
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The testing environment has not considered transaction or any other costs.
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Trading indicators used for the purpose of testing has been provided by Bloomberg.
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The strategy might suffer from data mining fallacy, selection bias and backfill bias.
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