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ينطوي التداول في الأسواق المالية على مخاطر كبيرة من الخسارة قد تتجاوز الودائع وقد لا تكون مناسبةً لجميع المستثمرين.
قبل التداول‎، يُرجى التأكد من من الاستيعاب الكامل للمخاطر المرافقة للتداول
ينطوي التداول في الأسواق المالية على مخاطر كبيرة من الخسارة قد تتجاوز الودائع وقد لا تكون مناسبةً لجميع المستثمرين.
قبل التداول‎، يُرجى التأكد من من الاستيعاب الكامل للمخاطر المرافقة للتداول
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Sunday, December 16, 2018

MAY The Force Be With You

تم إعداد هذا المنشور من قبل سنشري للاستشارات

MAY The Force Be With You

Was the Brexit referendum gratuitous? No one is asking this question anymore. At this point, the Britons and rest of the world remain perplexed of what is coming next. While the flexuous Brexit process prepares to unfold, the Conservative MP’s have shown their confidence in the Prime Minister Theresa May at the “vote of confidence” on Wednesday. Furthermore, Theresa May’s Brussels visit has been humiliating and now it is harder to decide whether the force is with May or against.

A total of 317 Tory members of parliament were asked about their confidence in the Leadership through a ballet. Prime Minister Theresa May prevailed by 200 votes to 117. However, this verdict was merely a preface- a preceding to the new chapter of “Were Tory members ready to bet on a NO DEAL BREXIT?” The Eurosceptics or the hard-line Brexiters have been consistently opposing a soft exit. It is clear that any relationship with the Euro area is unacceptable to some Tory members.

In spite of several complicated and disastrous election situations, May was able to provide the confidence to the majority of Tory MP’s who seemed to be understanding the adverse effects of the change in leadership at such crucial point. The very plan of the hard-line Brexiters about the whole issue was preposterous and sophomoric.  Their confounded plan to hold the exit payment or not considering the Irish border issue made the most Conservative MP’s realize the importance of the current leadership.

A hard exit is not the primary plan; it is the worst-case outcome if none of these efforts work. That leaves the all-important question of what Wednesday’s vote means for Brexit itself. Moreover, there is not much changed. Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement is still hanging dry which she will put for vote in January.

That means that the war between May and the hard-line Brexiters is still on. The default, if parliament doesn’t agree on another course of action, is that Britain leaves the EU, deal or no deal, at the end of March. May had tried to renegotiate the divorce bill from the EU to make her deal more palatable to MP’s, but she failed to get any reassurance from EU. As per the European officials, there will not be any further EU summits before January 21, which is the date when May puts forward her withdrawal deal for a vote among the British lawmakers

By now it is clear that so many British lawmakers eye on a second referendum, possibly a no deal or as in the case of the opposition Labour Party, new elections. All May’s victory on Wednesday has proved is that she only has, possibly, 200 supporters – in a parliament of 650. There now comes a three-way fight.

And as May confirmed earlier that in case of a change in leadership, the exit negotiations might have to be delayed, and the Article 50 duration be extended to allow the U.K. additional time to resolve the exit. It is not easy as such extension requires unanimous EU approval that would only be permitted in the event of a general election or a referendum.

May had catered to Euro-skeptics before which was a huge mistake. The motion of confidence, however, made clear for one side of the wing that there is still time for them to rise. The Conservative MP’s also realized that bringing May down means there will be a chaotic change in leadership and a massive distraction which Britain cannot afford to have- especially when it is closer to the ENDGAME.