Dubai gold prices jump 4% in three days, up nearly 13% in January

Vijay Valecha, January 21, 2026, Gulf News

Dubai gold prices surge as geopolitical risk and central bank buying lift demand

Dubai: Gold prices in Dubai surged on Wednesday, pushing retail rates to fresh highs and underlining how global political and financial stress is feeding directly into local markets.

The 24-karat variety climbed to Dh582.25 per gram, up from Dh571.25 on Tuesday. The 22-karat rate rose to Dh539 from Dh529, extending a rally that has accelerated through January and reshaped buying behaviour across the city’s jewellery souks. (Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and India.)

Since Monday, Dubai gold prices have surged 4.2%. Measured from the start of the month, the move is sharper still. Prices for 24-karat gold are up close to 12.74% since January 1, with 22-karat rising about 12.66% over the same period.

The monthly price path shows a steady build-up followed by a decisive breakout. Early January trading hovered just above Dh520 for 24-karat gold and below Dh482 for 22-karat. Mid-month saw prices grind higher into the mid-Dh550s, before momentum strengthened over the past week. Gains on consecutive sessions pushed gold firmly above Dh580, catching many buyers by surprise after a relatively calm close to 2025.

Jewellers say the pace of the move has split consumers into two camps. Some buyers are delaying purchases in hopes of a pullback, while others are rushing to lock in prices amid fears that the rally may not be over.

Global stress drives local prices

The surge in Dubai reflects a broader global rush into precious metals. Gold and platinum hit new records, while silver traded near historic highs, as investors reacted to a worsening crisis linked to Greenland and growing strains in sovereign debt markets.

Political tensions flared after President Donald Trump signalled no retreat from plans involving Greenland while attending the World Economic Forum in Davos. Threats of new US tariffs on several European nations added to trade war fears, weakening the dollar and driving demand for assets viewed as stores of value. Market unease deepened further after turmoil in Japanese government debt revived concerns over fiscal sustainability in major economies.

Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, said the combination of geopolitics, monetary uncertainty and institutional buying has created a powerful tailwind. “The Greenland crisis has sparked sharp safe-haven demand amid Trump’s threat of EU tariffs,” he said. “Criminal probes into Fed Chairman Powell have shaken confidence in the dollar, while continuous accumulation by central banks is providing solid institutional support. New highs are likely if geopolitical tensions persist and concerns around Fed independence escalate."

Silver has its own supply story. Valecha pointed to a widening physical shortage after China tightened controls on refined silver exports, creating squeeze conditions that could drive prices substantially higher.

What markets are watching next

Attention is now turning to a busy US policy calendar. Supreme Court hearings later this month on the president’s authority to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor, alongside delayed inflation data, are expected to shape expectations ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on January 29. Any shift in rate or policy expectations could feed quickly into precious metals pricing.

Technical analysis from the World Gold Council suggests gold is trading at the upper end of its typical overbought range, sitting roughly 25% above its 200-day average. While the near-term trend remains positive, analysts caution that momentum indicators have yet to fully confirm the latest highs. Support levels around $4,537 an ounce are seen as critical in determining whether the rally extends or pauses.

Central banks remain a backstop

Longer-term demand continues to be underpinned by central banks. Poland has approved plans to add another 150 tonnes to its reserves, while Bolivia has resumed gold purchases under new regulations introduced late last year. That steady accumulation has helped limit pullbacks and reinforced gold’s role as a hedge against political and financial instability.

Source

Gulf News