How Cost Discipline Keeps Gulf Energy Firms Afloat Amid Oil Price Slump

Vijay Valecha, February 13, 2026, Forbes Middle East

Regional energy giants are facing challenges in maintaining their fourth-quarter net earnings, but companies are navigating with surprising resilience, dodging the headwinds of lower crude prices through razor-sharp cost controls and robust volume growth.

Weak oil prices weigh on results

Early earnings reports from regional firms like Dana Gas, ADNOC Gas, and ADNOC Distribution are offering initial signals for the sector as earnings season gathers pace, with a major focus on heavyweight producers such as Saudi Aramco, according to market analysts.

Brent crude averaged $64 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, down 15% from $75 a year earlier. For the full year, Brent averaged $69 per barrel, compared to $81 in 2024, according to Dana Gas.

Analysts say the roughly $10 year-on-year decline weighed on revenues, but higher volumes and efficiency measures helped offset the impact.

How energy firms performed

ADNOC Gas reported a 15% year-on-year decline in fourth-quarter net profit to $1.17 billion, citing a weaker pricing environment, planned maintenance and a one-off gain in the fourth quarter of 2024 linked to an EWEC contract negotiation. Quarterly EBITDA fell 10% to $2.04 billion.

However, full-year 2025 net profit rose 3% to $5.2 billion, reflecting resilient earnings through the cycle. Sales volumes increased 5% year-on-year, driven by strong domestic gas demand.

“As demand for reliable delivery of gas continues to expand, ADNOC Gas is strategically positioned to serve both the UAE and international markets with confidence and discipline,” said the company’s CEO, Fatema Al Nuaimi.

Abu Dhabi-listed Dana Gas reported a 14% decline in 2025 net profit to $130 million, compared to $151 million in 2024, while revenue fell 22% to $348 million. The decline was largely due to the absence of a one-off $46 million retrospective gas price adjustment booked in 2024 and natural field declines in Egypt.

Excluding the one-time adjustment, performance reflected lower production and softer realised prices. However, the completion of the KM250 expansion marked a turning point, lifting output to 70,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, its highest level since 2018. Total collections for 2025 reached $303 million.

ADNOC Distribution posted a 7% year-on-year increase in fourth-quarter revenue to $2.6 billion, despite a 20% decline in WTI prices over 2025. Net profit rose 15.1% to $181.9 million, exceeding analyst expectations.

Aramco outlook

Speaking to Forbes Middle East, Vijay Valecha, CIO at Century Financial, said that Aramco has emphasised scale, low cost and operational efficiency as key to maintaining financial strength amidst market volatility. “The company has also stressed its disciplined capital planning and long-term strategy to focus on margin-enhancing projects. It has also been expanding its downstream refining and natural gas businesses, which remain stable even when crude prices fall,” added Valecha .

Recent moves include investment in the Fujian Sinopec Aramco Refining and Petrochemical project, the acquisition of Unioil Petroleum Philippines, and the signing of multibillion-dollar gas and downstream agreements with US companies.

Given that oil still accounts for roughly 60% of Saudi government revenue, any sustained earnings softness at Aramco could translate into fiscal pressure, although diversification efforts continue to gather pace.

Oil price outlook

Looking ahead, analysts expect oil markets to remain under pressure in 2026. Brent averaged $63 per barrel in December 2025, down $11 year-on-year, amid rising global supply and swelling inventories. New production from the US Gulf of Mexico and near-record output from non-OPEC+ producers added to the glut, while OPEC+ began unwinding voluntary cuts in mid-2025.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent to average $56 per barrel in 2026, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a 4.25 million barrels-per-day surplus in the first quarter. Most forecasters expect prices to hover in the mid-$50s.

Yet geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, continue to inject volatility. The risk of disruption to crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains a key wildcard and could add $10–$20 per barrel in a worst-case scenario.

Overall, Brent is expected to trade in a broad $50–$70 per barrel range through 2026, with structural oversupply limiting upside and geopolitical risk placing a floor under prices.

Source

Forbes Middle East