There was significantly higher foreign selling on DFM during February, March and April, with March seeing a record shortfall in investments, equal to about Dh764 million. During April, the deficit was Dh206 million.
The latest round of foreign selloff resonates with the panic global investors were experiencing as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, and also how markets such as the UAE, like others in the GCC region, can stand to lose significantly.
The COVID-19 spread saw investor panic peaking in March when stocks markets worldwide recorded their worst ever selloff in decades. Although the virus remains rampant, global stocks seemed to have priced in the chaos with the March crash.
At the time when overseas foreign investors pulled back their exposures in local markets, UAE nationals took advantage and stayed put, broadening their exposure by buying back all that was sold – as is the norm.
Dubai Financial Market until now had seen consistent foreign buying. Since January 2019, foreign investors bought Dh36.7 billion in stocks, while selling shares worth Dh34.5 billion.
Official stats did point out a 20 per cent increase in the value of foreign investors trading in the Abu Dhabi and Dubai markets in 2019. The net investments of non-Arab foreign investors in the UAE’s financial markets doubled 11 times in 2019, to Dh12.5 billion.
But little did markets know then the COVID-19 crisis would catch up and lead to biggest foreign selloff – triggering a decline of over Dh650 million since the start of the year. Although the historical figures indicate overseas interest will remain, the question is how much.
The Dubai government’s buyout of a most liquid stock - DP World – was widely considered a blow to a market where liquidity is already thin and seemed to contradict the government’s strategy of positioning itself as a destination for international investors.
It is also a good example of why market watchers think global fund managers will stay clear of Gulf equities, despite the inclusion of UAE and Saudi Arabia in the MSCI Emerging Market Indices. At the time, it was seen as a huge positive because of the funds it was expected to bring in.
Further billions in shortfall?
It has been reported that even after billions of dollars of passive inflows and the world’s largest IPO (that of Saudi Aramco), there is still a shortfall of $70 billion needed to bring funds up to market weight on Gulf equities.
However, even as global funds are still underweight on Gulf equities, analysts are confident that the UAE is making progress in deepening markets. Valecha expressed optimism saying that there are some signs of a turnaround with big institutional investors entering the scene.
According to available information, Lemanik Asset Management, Pictet Asset Management, Fidelity Investments, Ashmore and Schroder Investment are some of the recent investors in Emirates NBD.
Also, despite the real estate turmoil, Ashmore increased its stake in Emaar DB recently, and Schroder and Eaton Vance made recent purchases in Air Arabia, while Victory Capital Management has taken a stake in Tabreed, Valecha noted.
Source: Gulf News