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لا تقدم سنشري للاستشارات والتحليل المالي ش.ذ.م.م (سنشري) خدمات استشارية استثمارية أو خدمات إدارة المحافظ ولا تضمن العوائد الاستثمارية. كما أننا لا نقبل ولا ندفع بعملة مشفرة أو عملة رقمية. موقعنا الإلكتروني الرسمي هو www.century.ae. احذر من الشركات المحتالة أو المواقع الإلكترونية التي تتظاهر بأنها شركة سنشري. لسنا مسؤولين عن أي خسائر تنجم عن استخدام مواقع إلكترونية أو كيانات مزيفة. ينطوي التداول في الأسواق المالية على مخاطر خسارة كبيرة قد تفوق الودائع وربما لا يناسب جميع المستثمرين. قبل أن تبدأ، يُرجى التأكد من فهمك التام للمخاطر ذات الصلة.

Thursday, December 29, 2022

Enjoy +8% on Quality Investment Grade Bonds

تم إعداد هذا المنشور من قبل سنشري للاستشارات

Enjoy +8% on Quality Investment Grade Bonds
استمتع بزيادة بنسبة 8٪ على سندات الدرجة الاستثمارية التي تتصف بالجودة العالية

*Trading in financial market carries risk and can result in loss of capital.
*This performance is only observed with historical backtests and not traded by the company.

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The product and investment ideas do not consider the risk profile and financial position of the recipient and may not be suitable for everyone. Trading in financial markets and use of margin involves a significant risk of loss, which can exceed deposits. Please read the complete disclaimer carefully.

Invest with as low as USD 1000
Highliquidity
Virtuallyzero risk

لماذا الاستثمار في هذه السندات؟

Invest with as low as USD 1000

الدرجة الاستثمارية - تعتبر آمنة نسبيًا من قبل وكالات التصنيف الائتماني

Highliquidity

أكثر أمانًا نسبيًا من الأسهم

Virtuallyzero risk

الاستثمارات بالدولار تقدم عائدًا بنسبة 8٪

Invest with as low as USD 1000

اكسب دخل ثابت عن طريق القسائم لحين يأتي موعد الاستدعاء التالي

Virtuallyzero risk

أسماء العلامات التجارية عالية الجودة

ما هي سندات الدرجة الاستثمارية؟

سندات الدرجة الاستثمارية هي السندات التي لديها تصنيف عالي الجودة من قبل وكالات التصنيف الائتماني ، وهي السندات المصنفة Baa3 (من قبل Moody's) أو BBB- (من S&P و Fitch) أو أعلى.

تعتبر التصنيفات الائتمانية مهمة للغاية لأنها تنقل المخاطر المرتبطة بالاستثمار في سند معين. يشير تصنيف السندات الائتمانية بدرجة الاستثمار إلى انخفاض مخاطر التخلف عن السداد الائتماني ، مما يجعلها مناسبة للمحافظ الأكثر تحفظًا التي تسعى إلى تنويع الدخل. (راجع الملحق لمزيد من التفاصيل)

سندات الشركات ذات الدرجة الاستثمارية

Issuer Name Ticker ISIN Fitch Rating Moody Rating S&P Rating Ask Price Yield to Worst (Mid) LQA Score Coupon Next Call Date Benchmark Rate Floater Spread (bps)
Bank of America Corp BAC US060505FL38 BBB+ Baa3 BBB- $89.4 8.6% 69 $5.88 15/03/2028 4.75% 293.1
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM US48128BAN10 BBB+ Baa2 BBB- $86.6 8.4% 58 $3.65 01/06/2026 3.78% 285
Bank of New York Mellon Corp BK US064058AL44 BBB+ Baa1 BBB $81.0 9.5% 55 $3.75 20/12/2026 3.78% 263

Note:

  • Ask price as of 22/12/2022
  • The calculation of Yields does not consider transaction costs or holding charges
  • LQA score out of 100
  • The current coupon rate will remain constant untill the next call date which is minimum 3 years away. Post the call date, coupon rate would be the Benchmark 3 month US rate + Floater Spread

لماذا تبدو السندات مغرية؟

تشير أحدث التوقعات إلى أن الاحتياطي الفيدرالي ممكن أن يكون متوسط معدل الفائدة على الأموال الفيدرالية بنهاية العام 2023 5.1٪ ، قبل أن يتم خفضه إلى 4.1٪ في عام 2024. وهذا معدل أعلى مما هو مذكور سابقًا. ومع ذلك ، فإن المستثمرين غير مقتنعين بالتوقعات المتشددة لمجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي ولديهم سبب وجيه لشكهم. في نهاية العام الماضي ، توقع بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي أن يكون الحد الأعلى لسعر صندوقه 1٪ في نهاية عام 2022 ، لكنه انتهى عند 4.50٪. يتوقع بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الآن أن المعدل سيكون 5.00٪ بنهاية عام 2023. إذا قلل الاحتياطي الفيدرالي من تقدير المعدلات في نهاية العام الماضي ، فهل يمكن أن يبالغ في تقديرها الآن؟

مع تداول عوائد سندات الخزينة الأمريكية لمدة عامين بالقرب من 4.2٪ (انخفاضًا من الارتفاع الأخير البالغ 4.7٪) و توقع وصول المعدلات إلى الذروة بالقرب من 5٪ ، قد يعني ذلك أنه لن تكون هناك فرصة لإضافة سلالم سندات منخفضة المخاطر إلى استراتيجية الدخل الخاصة بك إذا انتظرت طويلا. ترتفع العوائد عمومًا كثيرًا قبل محور الاحتياطي الفيدرالي Fed pivot وتنخفض بشكل كبير بعد المحور. هذا يرجع إلى حقيقة أن المتداولين والمشاركين في السوق يضعون الرهانات قبل أشهر من وقوع حدث أساسي (مثل محور الاحتياطي الفيدرالي Fed pivot). لذلك ، بحلول الوقت الذي يحدث فيه محور الاحتياطي الفيدرالي Fed pivot بالفعل ، يكون السوق قد تحرك بالفعل ، وتكون الزيادة في العوائد قد انتهت (أو شارفت على الاكتمال).

ملحق

مقياس تصنيف السندات

Bond Rating Scale

المصطلحات

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تشير الدرجة الاستثمارية إلى أن السندات لديها مخاطر أقل في التخلف عن السداد نسبيًا وتحصل على تصنيفات أعلى من قبل وكالات التصنيف الائتماني.
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السندات الدائمة: السند الدائم هو سند ليس له تاريخ استحقاق. تحتوي معظم السندات الدائمة على ميزة استدعاء والتي تسمح للمصدر باسترداد السند بعد انقضاء فترة زمنية معينة.
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العائد للأسوأ: العائد للأسوأ هو مقياس لأدنى عائد يمكن الحصول عليه من السند الذي يعمل بشكل كامل ضمن شروط عقده دون تقصير.
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تاريخ الاستدعاء: في تاريخ الاستدعاء يحق للمصدر استرداد السند القابل للاستدعاء بالقيمة الاسمية ، أو بعلاوة صغيرة تعادل القيمة الاسمية ، قبل تاريخ الاستحقاق المحدد
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العائد حتى الاستحقاق: إجمالي العائد المتوقع على السند إذا تم الاحتفاظ به حتى الاستحقاق.
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LQA: تقدير السيولة. يشير الرقم الأعلى إلى فروق أسعار أقل بين سعر العرض والطلب.
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ISIN: الرقم التعريفي الدولي للأوراق المالية مكون من 12 رقمًا يحدد بشكل فريد سنداً معينًا.
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القسيمة: معدل الفائدة السنوي المدفوع على السند.
Risks and Assumptions for Back-tested trading strategies
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The risks and assumptions listed here are not intended to be an exhaustive summary of all the risks and assumptions involved.
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The strategy might suffer from look-ahead bias which occurs due to the use of information or data in a study or simulation that would not have been known or available during the period being analyzed. This can lead to inaccurate results in the study or simulation.
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Future price movements may not be exactly the same as the historical price movements and this could lead to variation in performance.
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Testing can sometimes lead to over-optimization. This is a condition where performance results are tuned so high to the past they are no longer as accurate in the future.
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The model assumes no slippages in trading. Slippage refers to the difference between the expected price of a trade and the price at which the trade is actually executed.
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Drawdowns in actual trading can be higher than the tested system and losses could be significant in the event of leverage.
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Unforeseen events can lead to variation in performance from the tested trading strategy.
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The tested result has been computed with price feeds available from Bloomberg.
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The testing environment has not considered transaction or any other costs.
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Trading indicators used for the purpose of testing has been provided by Bloomberg.
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The strategy might suffer from data mining fallacy, selection bias and backfill bias.

Data Source: Bloomberg
Date: 22/12/2022

Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst

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