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Century Financial Consultancy

محفظة استثمارية متنوعة

انقر على المعيار المحدد على المؤشر للتعرف على استراتيجيات التداول المتحفظة، المعتدلة والمغامرة.

توزيع الأصول
10%
الأسهم
10%
المؤشرات
10%
العملات الأجنبية
20%
السلع
50%
السندات
ملاحظة: هذا لأغراض التوضيح فقط وليس هناك أي التزام بقبول توزيع الأصول التي توفرها هذه الأداة. مزيج المحفظة ليس نصيحة استثمارية ولا اقتراحًا بشأن تخصيص الأصول ليتم اعتماده من قبل المستثمرين.
أسواق تداول
الوصف
الاتجاه
نطاق التداول
forex
Walmart Inc
Trend
Range $65.78 to $73.00
Walmart Inc., a major omnichannel retailer, operates in the U.S., Africa, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India, and Mexico through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club. The company's stock has risen 19.36% over the past year and 15.89% year-to-date, driven by sustainable growth and margin expansion. In Q1 2025, Walmart reported an EPS of $0.60, with revenues up 6% YoY and operating income up 13.7%. Globally, eCommerce penetration was higher across all markets, led by store-fulfilled pickup & delivery and marketplace with U.S. sales up 3.8%. Looking ahead, the Company expects Q2 net sales to increase 3.5% to 4.5% and operating income to grow 3.0% to 4.5%. The company is advancing its business strategy through digital advertising, Walmart Plus, and automation. With improvements in digital profitability and domestic square footage expansion, Walmart is expected to outperform the broader retail sector.
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forex
SMI Index
Trend
Range CHF 11,858 - CHF 12,900
The SMI Index has registered a year-to-date gain of 10.16%, driven by investor inflows prompted by indications of a decelerating global economy. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) commenced a monetary easing cycle in March, ahead of other major central banks like the ECB. The market consensus leans towards a third interest rate cut by the SNB in September. Despite tempered Swiss inflation, a resurgence in Swiss Franc strength to levels prior to the June rate cut reinforces this expectation. The currency's real effective exchange rate currently exceeds its long-term average by approximately 4%, suggesting overvaluation. To mitigate the Franc's appreciation, the SNB is projected to deploy monetary policy instruments rather than reinstating the foreign currency purchase program that expanded its balance sheet before 2022. Such actions would likely support the SMI Index. Furthermore, analysts predict robust earnings growth, with consensus forecasts indicating a 10% to 12% increase in earnings per share through 2025.
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forex
AUS/USD
Trend
Range 0.6351 - 0.6761
Technically, the pair shows bullish momentum, supported by a wedge pattern around 0.6495, which also aligns with a strong Fibonacci confluence on the weekly chart. Fundamentally, Australia’s Q2 CPI report, due on July 31, 2024, is crucial. The PPI release on August 2, 2024, will follow, but market participants will likely decide on the RBA's August rate hike based on the CPI data. Strong employment figures and rising monthly inflation have maintained the RBA’s hawkish stance. However, expectations of multiple Fed cuts and a slightly dovish RBNZ have reduced pressure on the RBA. Nonetheless, high inflation figures could prompt markets to reprice a potential hike. Currently, RBA cash rate futures suggest a 26.8% chance of a hike, up from 23.5% a week ago.
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forex
Gold
Trend
Range $2,286 - $2,550
Gold hit a record high of $2,483 earlier in July and is poised for a solid monthly gain of about 4%. The metal has been supported by increased demand from Asian investors purchasing physical bars in the OTC market, central bank buying to diversify reserves, and escalating geopolitical tensions between Hamas and Israel. Additionally, the shift in the U.S. economy from inflation to disinflation has markets anticipating interest rate cuts in September, favoring non-interest-bearing assets like gold. Market analysis also suggests a 64.94% probability of a Trump presidency in 2024, which is expected to further boost gold prices. During his previous term, gold prices surged significantly. Moreover, Trump's protectionist stance could weaken the U.S. dollar, benefiting gold. The combination of rate cuts, central bank purchases, Asian demand for physical bars, rising geopolitical tensions, and a weaker dollar under a Trump administration suggests a bullish outlook for bullion.
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bonds
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Trend
Range $93.55 - $103.40
The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) is designed to mirror the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, providing a thorough representation of the U.S. investment-grade bond market. With a portfolio encompassing over 8,000 bonds—ranging from government and corporate bonds to mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities—the ETF ensures extensive diversification within the U.S. bond market. Prioritizing cost-effectiveness and liquidity, AGG manages assets exceeding $100 billion while maintaining a low expense ratio of 0.03%, significantly below the industry average. The ETF has recorded a one-month return of 1.27%, a three-month return of 4.10%, and a one-year return of 3.88%, along with a 12-month dividend yield of 3.43%. It is an excellent choice for investors seeking broad exposure to U.S. bonds with minimal costs, offering the potential for both income and capital appreciation. However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with interest rate fluctuations and credit quality.
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iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF
Trend
Range $103.39 - $114.28
The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) seeks to replicate the performance of an index comprising U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate bonds. Its main objective is to provide investors with access to the high-quality segment of the corporate bond market, ensuring broad diversification across various sectors, maturities, and credit ratings. With a low expense ratio of just 0.14% and strong liquidity, this fund is an appealing option for those seeking income and stability in the fixed-income sector. The ETF has achieved a one-month return of 1.30%, a three-month return of 4.48%, and a one-year return of 4.93%. It offers a 12-month dividend yield of 4.30% and maintains moderate interest rate risk along with low credit risk, with most of its holdings rated A or higher by major rating agencies. Ideal for investors looking for a reliable investment with substantial diversification and liquidity in the investment-grade corporate bond market, LQD presents a compelling choice.
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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Trend
Range $88.81 - $98.16
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is designed to mirror the performance of long-term U.S. government bonds. By concentrating on bonds with over 20 years of remaining maturity, the fund is highly sensitive to changes in interest rates and inflation expectations. Investors often consider TLT when anticipating shifts in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly during periods of transition from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing. These shifts typically increase the demand for long-term bonds, driving up their prices and lowering their yields, which benefits TLT by reflecting the rising value of its underlying assets. The ETF has achieved a one-month return of 2.19% and a three-month return of 6.13%. With a low expense ratio of 0.15% and a 12-month dividend yield of 3.80%, along with a notable history of dividend growth, TLT is an attractive investment for those expecting a policy shift from the Fed in 2024, potentially leading to the appreciation of long-duration bonds.
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Vanguard Short - Term Corporate Bond Index
Trend
Range $74.10 - $81.91
The Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index (VCSH) is a mutual fund that strategically invests in high-quality corporate bonds with maturities ranging from one to five years. Its main objective is to offer investors a sustainable and moderate level of current income while minimizing interest rate risk. The fund tracks the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. 1-5 Year Corporate Bond Index, which measures the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated, investment-grade, fixed-rate securities issued by industrial, utility, and financial companies. With an impressively low expense ratio of 0.04%, well below the category average, VCSH has consistently outperformed its benchmark. The fund has delivered one-month returns of 1.29%, 3 month returns of 2.77%, one-year annualized returns of 6.66% and a 12-month dividend yield of 3.55%. It is well-diversified across various sectors, including significant exposures to financials, consumer non-cyclical, communications, and technology. Designed for investors seeking income generation from their portfolio while prioritizing risk management and liquidity, VCSH is an excellent option.
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Data Source: Bloomberg
Date: 1st August, 2024

Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst

Deepa Sachanandani
Deputy Head - Research

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The product and investment ideas do not consider the risk profile and financial position of the recipient and may not be suitable for everyone.
Trading in financial markets involves a significant risk of loss, which can exceed deposits. Please read the complete disclaimer carefully.
DISCLAIMER: Century Financial Consultancy LLC (“CFC”) is Limited Liability Company incorporated under the Laws of UAE and is duly licensed and regulated by the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority of UAE (SCA). This information is for illustrative proposes only and must not be construed to be an advice to invest or otherwise in any investment or financial product. CFC does not guarantee as to adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information or data contained herein and under no circumstances whatsoever none of such information or data be construed as an advice or trading strategy or recommendation to deal (Buy/Sell) in any investment or financial product. CFC is not responsible or liable for any result, gain or loss, based on this information, in whole or in part. Please refer to the disclaimer section of the website for full disclosure of the terms and conditions.
Risks & Assumptions
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The strategy might suffer from look-ahead bias which occurs due to use of information or data in a study or simulation that would not have been known or available during the period being analyzed. This can lead to inaccurate results in the study or simulation.
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Future price movements may not be exactly the same as the historical price movements and this could lead to variation in performance.
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Testing can sometimes lead to over-optimization. This is a condition where performance results are tuned so high to the past they are no longer as accurate in the future.
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The model assumes no slippages in trading. Slippage refers to the difference between the expected price of a trade and the price at which the trade is actually executed.
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Drawdowns in actual trading can be higher than the tested system and loses could significant in the event of leverage.
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Unforeseen events can lead to variation in performance from the tested trading strategy.
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The tested result has been computed with price feeds available from Bloomberg.
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The testing environment has not considered transaction or any other costs.
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Trading indicators used for the purpose of testing has been provided by Bloomberg.
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The strategy might suffer from data mining fallacy, selection bias and backfill bias.