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Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Gold outlook hinges on US rates, dollar strength and inflation data

By Vijay Valecha in 'Century in News'

Gold outlook hinges on US rates, dollar...

Vijay Valecha, Tue, Oct 13, 2026 Khaleej Times

Analysts say bullion faces competing pressures from geopolitical tensions, central-bank demand and rising Treasury yields as investors await key US economic indicators

Gold prices may remain under pressure in the coming weeks as investors weigh geopolitical risks against the prospect of higher US interest rates and a stronger dollar, according to market analysts.

The precious metal has found some support from safe-haven demand and central-bank buying, but analysts say elevated bond yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy continue to represent significant headwinds.

Gold was recently trading around $4,192 an ounce after recovering modestly from earlier losses, helped by lower oil prices and a softer US dollar. However, the broader picture remains uncertain as markets await fresh inflation signals from the United States.

Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial, said the recent rebound should not be mistaken for a shift in the wider trend.

“While structural investment demand and central-bank buying have provided support, changing reserve-management strategies among some central banks could limit further upside,” he said.

Valecha noted that Kazakhstan, one of the world’s largest gold buyers, plans to reduce gold’s share of its foreign exchange reserves, potentially adding supply to the market. He also pointed to comments from US policymakers favouring a more restrictive monetary stance to contain inflation.

Markets are now closely watching US consumer and producer inflation data, along with remarks from Federal Reserve officials, for clues about the future direction of interest rates.

“A stronger than expected CPI reading, particularly in core inflation, could increase expectations of an October rate hike and trigger further downside in gold,” Valecha said.

Source

Khaleej Times

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