Vijay Valecha, Special to Khaleej Times July 11, 2021
Commodity analysts say there is potential for a further positive push in gold prices.
Gold prices will be dictated by three main events this week – the US inflation data, China’s second-quarter GDP report and US retail sales.
Commodity analysts say that any disappointing data from the US and China would suggest weakness persisting across the world’s two largest economies and benefit the safe-haven gold.
Meanwhile, traders will also monitor the earnings from banks and US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s speech for more clues about the Tapering timeline.
Spot gold closed up 0.25 per cent at $1,808.54, posting a third straight weekly gain. In the UAE, 24K price last closed at Dh219 per gram, 22K at Dh205.75, 21K at Dh196.25 and 18K at Dh168.25, according to the Dubai Gold and Jewellery Group data.
Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, said gold being a non-interest-bearing metal, benefited from a sharp decline in Treasury yields – notably the longer-dated US 10-year yields which fell to 1.35 per cent – lowest since February.
“Renewed fears that fast-spreading Delta variant may endanger economic recovery has spurred the investor demand for havens. Meanwhile, reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut – the amount of cash banks must hold – by China’s Central Bank also suggests the world’s second-largest economy is concerned about growth,” said Valecha.
Gold’s credentials as a hedge against unforeseen developments seem to have strengthened during the past few weeks and could be headed for more gains in the weeks ahead, he added
“Immediate support and resistance for the precious metal are seen near 100-day and 200-day moving average at $1,790 and $1,830 an ounce, respectively. In the UAE, 24K gold price could rally to Dh222-Dh225 region in this week. Meanwhile, strong support is seen near Dh212 and Dh215 region,” said Century Financial chief investment officer.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, said technical indicators hint that there is potential for a further positive push in gold prices at the current levels. “The trend and momentum indicators turned positive at the beginning of this week.”
He said the upside potential will likely remain capped into the 200-day moving average, near the $1,830per oz, if there isn’t a significant bearish reversal in the US equity markets.