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Portfolio Mix

Click on the dial to see the conservative, moderate & aggressive portfolio strategies.

Asset Allocation
10%
Equities
10%
Indices
10%
Forex
20%
Commodities
50%
Bonds
Note: This is for illustrative purposes only and there is no obligation to accept the asset allocation suggested by this tool
Instruments
Description
Trend
Trading Range
Home Depot Inc
Trend
Range $370 - $405
Last quarter, Home Depot (HD) exhibited resilient performance amidst economic uncertainties, showcasing steady business even as sales moderated. The company's ability to outperform the industry, with comparable store sales trending better than market data suggests, indicates market share gains. Despite weather disruptions, December sales were positive, and transaction growth improved, contributing to a strong finish in Q4. Home Depot's consistency in comparable store sales throughout 2023 highlights its resilience in the face of slowing demand. The company also demonstrates improved profitability, with gross margin guidance exceeding expectations, and a focus on cost control and margin protection. Expectations of continued market share gains, along with anticipation of housing trends improving in March, bolster Home Depot's position as a defensive play. It offers exposure to the positive long-term outlook of the housing market with less risk compared to companies directly tied to housing turnover.
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indeces
Switzerland 20
Trend
Range CHF 11,042 - CHF 12,060
Both breadth and momentum indicators of Switzerland's SMI index are steadily improving to healthy levels. The index itself is trading above all key moving averages on the monthly charts - suggesting overall bullish momentum. Switzerland's consumer sentiment indicator rose to -41 points in January 2024, marking an improvement from October 2023's reading of -53 points. Results of the latest economic sentiment survey - which measures how confident analysts are about the potential economic developments in the next six months - surged to a 2-year high in January 2024 as concerns about the Swiss economy ebbed. Employment in Q4'2023 rose 1.7% YoY while vacancies declined 9% YoY. The overall labor market appears healthy, and analysts expect the Swiss economy to grow at a pace of 0.2% QoQ in Q4'2023. Inflation in Switzerland has remained within the central bank's 0% to 2% target since June 2023, compelling the SNB to leave interest rates unchanged since its last interest rate hike in June 2023. January's CPI print came in at 1.3% YoY, well below the estimate of 1.7%. Core CPI also moderated to 1.2% YoY. Thus, market participants expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to pivot to rate cuts as early as March 2024.
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forex
AUD/USD
Trend
Range 0.6371 to 0.6625
The AUD/USD pair staged a recovery post-mid-February, rebounding from 11-month lows, buoyed by support from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Despite this uptick, the Australian Dollar faces ongoing depreciation, influenced by diminishing inflation figures and concerns over the Chinese economy. The release of CPI data in late February solidified the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia has concluded its tightening cycle, as it clocked lower-than-expected figures, and has been on a declining trend. On the Chinese front, positive reports on Chinese New Year spending haven't dampened calls for fiscal stimulus, with the China International Capital Corporation urging lawmakers in Beijing to address this need. It must be noted that China accounts for about one-third of Australian exports and trade-related jobs constitute 20% of the Australian workforce. Market expectations lean towards an RBA rate cut in August, with an 80% probability, and a fully priced-in cut by September, according to the RBA's cash rate futures curve. On the USD front, amid a strong economy and higher for longer interest rates backdrop, the USD is expected to be stronger
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commodities
Gold
Trend
Range $1985 - $2150
The prospect of a surge in the price of gold looms in the upcoming month, spurred by a breakout from its recent downward trending channel. This anticipation is fueled by market expectations of interest rate cuts in response to lower inflation, substantiated by the recent decline in the PCE numbers released in late February. January's PCE number revealed actuals of 2.4% YoY, down from the previous reading of 2.6%, with the PCE Price Index being the primary inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. The subdued figures have positively impacted market sentiments, with current pricing indicating a 51% probability of interest rate cuts as early as June 2024. Analysts foresee a robust central bank buying of gold in 2024, surpassing the pre-2022 average of 500 tons, a significant factor that contributed to the metal's price increase during the Fed's interest rate hike journey. Additionally from a technical perspective can be witnessed previously whenever the price reached the 2070 mark, it was followed by an aggressive pullback to the 1800 levels, however, the yellow metal is stalling around the highs, suggesting resilient support from market participants.
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bonds
iShares Core
U.S. Aggregate
Bond ETF
Trend
Range $95.45 - $101.40
The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) aims to replicate the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which serves as a comprehensive indicator of the U.S. investment-grade bond market. With a portfolio encompassing over 8,000 bonds across various sectors like government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities, the fund provides investors with broad access to the entire U.S. bond market. Emphasizing cost-effectiveness and high liquidity, the fund, currently holding assets surpassing $100 billion, boasts a low expense ratio of 0.03%, below the average for similar funds. Additionally, it offers a 12-month yield of 3.16%. Tailored for investors seeking diversified and cost-effcient exposure to the U.S. bond market, the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF represents an appealing choice, providing potential for both income generation and capital growth, despite inherent interest rate and credit risks.
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iShares iBoxx $
Investment
Grade Corporate
Bond ETF
Trend
Range $105.29 - $111.2
The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) is designed to track the performance of a broad index comprising U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate bonds. Its primary objective is to provide investors exposure to the high-quality segment of the corporate bond market, ensuring diversification across various sectors, maturities, and credit ratings. With a modest expense ratio of 0.14% and high liquidity, the fund emerges as an appealing option for investors seeking both income and stability in the fixed-income domain. Demonstrating a three-month performance of 3.97% and a 12-month dividend yield of 4.15%, the fund also maintains a moderate interest rate risk and low credit risk, with the majority of its holdings rated A or higher by major rating agencies. Tailored for investors looking for a foundational investment in the investment-grade corporate bond market that is both diversified and liquid, the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF presents a compelling choice.
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iShares 20+ Year
Treasury Bond
ETF
Trend
Range $90.17 - $100.59
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of long-term US government bonds. The fund primarily invests in bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 20 years, making them sensitive to changes in interest rates and inflation expectations. One of the primary motivations for investing in TLT is to potentially benefit from a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing. Such a pivot by the Fed tends to increase demand for long-term bonds, driving up their prices and lowering their yields. This scenario favors TLT, as it reflects the increased value of its underlying holdings. TLT boasts a low expense ratio of 0.15% and an impressive three-month performance of 5.20%. Additionally, it offers a 12-month dividend yield of 3.61%, with a noteworthy dividend growth rate over the years. Therefore, TLT presents itself as a suitable investment for investors anticipating a pivot in the Fed's policy in 2024, potentially leading to the appreciation of long-duration bonds.
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Vanguard Short -
Term Corporate
Bond Index
Trend
Range $74.79 - $81.25
The Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index (VCSH) is a mutual fund strategically invested in high-quality corporate bonds with maturities ranging from one to five years. Its primary objective is to provide investors with a sustainable and moderate level of current income while minimizing interest rate risk. The fund tracks the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. 1-5 Year Corporate Bond Index, evaluating the returns of U.S. dollar-denominated, investment-grade, fixed-rate securities issued by industrial, utility, and financial companies. With an impressively low expense ratio of 0.04%, below the category average, the fund has consistently outperformed its benchmark, boasting one-year, annualized returns of 5.72%. Notably diversified across sectors, with major exposures in financials, consumer non-cyclical, communications, and technology, the fund is tailored for investors seeking income generation from their portfolio without compromising on risk management or liquidity.
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Data Source: Bloomberg
Date: 4th March, 2024

Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst

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The product and investment ideas do not consider the risk profile and financial position of the recipient and may not be suitable for everyone.
Trading in financial markets involves a significant risk of loss, which can exceed deposits. Please read the complete disclaimer carefully.
DISCLAIMER: Century Financial Consultancy LLC (“CFC”) is Limited Liability Company incorporated under the Laws of UAE and is duly licensed and regulated by the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority of UAE (SCA). This information is for illustrative proposes only and must not be construed to be an advice to invest or otherwise in any investment or financial product. CFC does not guarantee as to adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information or data contained herein and under no circumstances whatsoever none of such information or data be construed as an advice or trading strategy or recommendation to deal (Buy/Sell) in any investment or financial product. CFC is not responsible or liable for any result, gain or loss, based on this information, in whole or in part. Please refer to the disclaimer section of the website for full disclosure of the terms and conditions.
Risks & Assumptions
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The strategy might suffer from look-ahead bias which occurs due to use of information or data in a study or simulation that would not have been known or available during the period being analyzed. This can lead to inaccurate results in the study or simulation.
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Future price movements may not be exactly the same as the historical price movements and this could lead to variation in performance.
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Testing can sometimes lead to over-optimization. This is a condition where performance results are tuned so high to the past they are no longer as accurate in the future.
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The model assumes no slippages in trading. Slippage refers to the difference between the expected price of a trade and the price at which the trade is actually executed.
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Drawdowns in actual trading can be higher than the tested system and loses could significant in the event of leverage.
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Unforeseen events can lead to variation in performance from the tested trading strategy.
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The tested result has been computed with price feeds available from Bloomberg.
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The testing environment has not considered transaction or any other costs.
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Trading indicators used for the purpose of testing has been provided by Bloomberg.
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The strategy might suffer from data mining fallacy, selection bias and backfill bias.