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Portfolio Mix

Click on the dial to see the conservative, moderate & aggressive portfolio strategies.

Asset Allocation
10%
Equities
10%
Indices
10%
Forex
20%
Commodities
50%
Bonds
Note: This is for illustrative purposes only and there is no obligation to accept the asset allocation suggested by this tool
Instruments
Description
Trend
Trading Range
JP Morgan
Trend
Range $190 - $215
The bank's ability to invest in growth while consistently surpassing expectations solidifies its position among its peers. Analyst anticipates JPMorgan Chase to outperform its own guidance in multiple areas, potentially resulting in higher stock valuations, as currently reflected in its P/E ratio of 12x. the short-term optimism is supported by the potential for increased net interest income driven by higher interest rates, strong deposit growth (around $1.1 trillion), and faster credit card expansion (guided at 12%). Continued momentum in investment banking activities, particularly in Equity Capital Markets and Debt Capital Markets, could further boost fee income, with estimates suggesting that Q1 2024 investment banking revenue might exceed initial projections. JPMorgan Chase excels at managing expenses, maintaining a low core effciency ratio (around 53% in 2023, excluding one-time items and legal expenses), and improving revenue per employee by 14% year-over-year in 2023. Despite increased capital levels, JPMorgan Chase delivers high returns on capital employed (ROTCE), with a 21% ROTCE in 2023 and expectations of above-average returns of 17%, 16%, and 15% over the next three years., JPMorgan Chase is expected to outperform its guidance and generate strong financial performance in the coming months
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indeces
Switzerland 20
Trend
Range CHF 11,415 - CHF 12,150
In March, the SMI Index experienced a 2.3% increase. The defensive index is 0.8% below its 52-week high recorded on March 13, 2024, and stands 14.1% above its 52-week low reached on Oct. 23, 2023. The market saw a boost in stock prices following an unexpected monetary policy adjustment by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which reduced its key policy rate to 1.5% amidst a cooling inflationary environment in the country. Switzerland's inflation rate for February stood at 1.2%, falling within the SNB's targeted range for price stability. With the implementation of the rate cut, the export-oriented market is poised to outperform its peers, anticipating a weaker franc. Over the past decade, currency fluctuations have accounted for nearly a quarter of the SMI's relative performance. In consideration of a weakening franc, Swiss equities known for their resilience to economic swings, are expected to gain further and outperform European stocks.
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forex
EUR/USD
Trend
Range 1.049 to 1.100
From a technical perspective, there's a notable shift in market sentiment, reflecting a strong bearish bias as indicated by the support/resistance flip of the long-term upward trend line. Investors are focused on potential interest rate cuts by both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). Anticipation is high for three rate cuts by both central banks, starting in June. Presently, there's a 67.7% likelihood of a 25-bps rate reduction by the Fed in June 2024, with full pricing for a cut by July 2024. Similarly, the market anticipates a 97.9% probability of a 25-bps rate cut by the ECB in June 2024. While there's strong expectation for an ECB rate cut in June, mixed signals from Fed offcials suggest potential delays in rate adjustments. In February, Eurozone CPI stood at 2.6%, down from 2.8% in January, while US CPI was at 3.8%, slightly above analyst expectations of 3.7%. These factors weigh on the Euro and suppress the EUR/USD pair due to decreased foreign capital inflows linked to lower interest rates.
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commodities
Gold
Trend
Range $2125 - $2350
Market expectations of interest rate cuts has spurred an unprecedented surge in gold prices since mid-February. This surge has been further fuelled by demand for safe-haven assets, driven by concerns over geopolitical tensions. In the face of still-sticky inflation data, which topped forecasts for the month of February, Gold demonstrated resilience. Additionally, the recent indication from the Fed that it intends to maintain a 75 basis points cut in interest rates in 2024 continues to support the upward momentum of gold prices. However, persistent inflationary pressures may compel the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, thereby strengthening the US Dollar. This anticipation forecasts a cautious upward momentum for gold. From a technical perspective, the recent price action over the past two weeks suggests a bullish consolidation phase within the context of a significant uptrend that commenced earlier in the month. Ongoing massive purchases by central banks in emerging markets, led by China, support anticipated upward movement for the yellow metal.
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bonds
iShares Core
U.S. Aggregate
Bond ETF
Trend
Range $95.12 - $102.75
The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) aims to replicate the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which serves as a comprehensive indicator of the U.S. investment-grade bond market. Diversified across more than 8,000 bonds across government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed sectors, the fund provides broad access to the entire U.S. bond market. Emphasizing cost effciency and strong liquidity, the fund currently holds assets surpassing $100 billion with a low expense ratio of 0.03%, below the industry standard. Additionally, it offers a 12-month yield of 3.29%. Designed for investors seeking diversified exposure to the U.S. bond market at a low cost, the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF offers an appealing choice, providing potential for both income generation and capital appreciation, despite inherent risks related to interest rates and credit.
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iShares iBoxx $
Investment
Grade Corporate
Bond ETF
Trend
Range $105.75 - $114.47
The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) is crafted to mirror the performance of a broad index consisting of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate bonds. Its primary aim is to offer investors exposure to the high-quality segment of the corporate bond market, ensuring diversification across various sectors, maturities, and credit ratings. With a modest expense ratio of 0.14% and strong liquidity, the fund emerges as an attractive option for investors seeking both income and stability in the fixed-income sector. Showing a one-year performance of 3.18% and a 12-month dividend yield of 4.14%, the fund also maintains a moderate interest rate risk and low credit risk, with the majority of its holdings rated A or higher by major rating agencies. Tailored for investors seeking a foundational investment in the investment-grade corporate bond market that is both diversified and liquid, the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF presents a compelling choice.
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iShares 20+ Year
Treasury Bond
ETF
Trend
Range $92.1 - $99.43
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is an exchange-traded fund designed to mirror the performance of long-term US government bonds. Focused on bonds with over 20 years remaining maturity, the fund is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates and inflation expectations. Investors often turn to TLT with the expectation of benefiting from a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, such as transitioning from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing. This shift typically boosts demand for long-term bonds, pushing their prices higher and yields lower, a scenario advantageous for TLT as it reflects the increased value of its underlying holdings. With a low expense ratio of 0.15% and a 12-month dividend yield of 3.66%, along with a notable history of dividend growth, TLT stands as an attractive investment option for those anticipating a pivot in the Fed's policy in 2024, potentially leading to the appreciation of long-duration bonds.
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Vanguard Short -
Term Corporate
Bond Index
Trend
Range $7509 - $81.30
The Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index (VCSH) is a mutual fund strategically invested in high-quality corporate bonds with maturities ranging from one to five years. Its primary aim is to offer investors a sustainable and moderate level of current income while minimizing interest rate risk. The fund tracks the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. 1-5 Year Corporate Bond Index, which assesses the returns of U.S. dollar-denominated, investment-grade, fixed-rate securities issued by industrial, utility, and financial companies. With an impressively low expense ratio of 0.04%, below the category average, the fund has consistently surpassed its benchmark, with one-year, annualized returns of 4.67% and a 12-month dividend yield of 3.26%. Notably diversified across sectors, with major exposures in financials, consumer non-cyclical, communications, and technology, the fund is tailored for investors seeking income generation from their portfolio without compromising on risk management or liquidity.
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Data Source: Bloomberg
Date: 1st April, 2024

Arun Leslie John
Chief Market Analyst

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The product and investment ideas do not consider the risk profile and financial position of the recipient and may not be suitable for everyone.
Trading in financial markets involves a significant risk of loss, which can exceed deposits. Please read the complete disclaimer carefully.
DISCLAIMER: Century Financial Consultancy LLC (“CFC”) is Limited Liability Company incorporated under the Laws of UAE and is duly licensed and regulated by the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority of UAE (SCA). This information is for illustrative proposes only and must not be construed to be an advice to invest or otherwise in any investment or financial product. CFC does not guarantee as to adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information or data contained herein and under no circumstances whatsoever none of such information or data be construed as an advice or trading strategy or recommendation to deal (Buy/Sell) in any investment or financial product. CFC is not responsible or liable for any result, gain or loss, based on this information, in whole or in part. Please refer to the disclaimer section of the website for full disclosure of the terms and conditions.
Risks & Assumptions
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The strategy might suffer from look-ahead bias which occurs due to use of information or data in a study or simulation that would not have been known or available during the period being analyzed. This can lead to inaccurate results in the study or simulation.
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Future price movements may not be exactly the same as the historical price movements and this could lead to variation in performance.
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Testing can sometimes lead to over-optimization. This is a condition where performance results are tuned so high to the past they are no longer as accurate in the future.
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The model assumes no slippages in trading. Slippage refers to the difference between the expected price of a trade and the price at which the trade is actually executed.
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Drawdowns in actual trading can be higher than the tested system and loses could significant in the event of leverage.
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Unforeseen events can lead to variation in performance from the tested trading strategy.
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The tested result has been computed with price feeds available from Bloomberg.
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The testing environment has not considered transaction or any other costs.
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Trading indicators used for the purpose of testing has been provided by Bloomberg.
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The strategy might suffer from data mining fallacy, selection bias and backfill bias.