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Monday, August 31, 2026
Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut - Markets Look for Policy Clarity
تم إعداد هذا المنشور من قبل سنشري للاستشارات
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Foreword
This report evaluates the scenarios markets are pricing in for the Jackson Hole meeting, Kevin Warsh’s policy framework, and their possible effects on different asset classes. Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole address as Federal Reserve Chair lands at a moment when market pricing is unusually sensitive to communication rather than to the September rate call. Long-end Treasury yields sit near multi-decade highs, the dollar is testing three-month lows, and cross-asset volatility has risen alongside questions about the Fed’s reaction function. Investors are looking for a clear framework linking inflation, labour data, and financial conditions to the policy rate. The principal risk is a message that leaves markets with more uncertainty rather than less.
Key takeaway
A clearly articulated, data-linked reaction function is the market-preferred outcome; repeating the July communication style is the main risk signal. Positioning should reflect elevated cross-asset sensitivity, not a directional call on the speech.
The Setup
The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% on 29 July in a 9–3 vote — the fifth consecutive hold. Regional Presidents Hammack (Cleveland), Kashkari (Minneapolis) and Logan (Dallas) each dissented in favour of a 25bp hike; this is the first three-way hawkish dissent since September 2016. The minutes released on 19 August indicated that hawkish sentiment extended beyond the three dissenters and disclosed a Chair-led discussion on reducing the meeting schedule from eight to six per year, with no decision taken.
Data flow since July has softened. July nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 against a consensus near 80,000, with May and June combined revised down by 103,000; the unemployment rate edged to 4.1% and average hourly earnings slowed to 3.2% year-on-year. July CPI printed at 0.1% month-on-month, with headline at 3.4% and core at 2.5% year-on-year. June PCE ran at 3.7% headline and 3.3% core; the July PCE release lands on 26 August, one trading day before the speech. CME FedWatch shows around a 40% probability of a 25bp hike on 16 September, down from close to even earlier in the summer.
The Treasury curve has bear steepened. On 19 August, the Treasury announced it will at least double liquidity-support buyback sizes in the 10–30Y sector to at least $4 billion per operation, effective 9 September through 4 November, with the Secretary indicating scope to go further. The 30-year yield sits near a multi-year high (around 5.27% on 21 August), the 10-year around 4.7%, and the dollar index near a three-month low.
Scenario framework
The three scenarios below are presented as balanced possibilities.
| Scenario | Trigger | Rate-market channel | Cross-asset (conditional) |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Clear policy signal | Clearly explains how the Fed will respond to inflation, jobs and the economy. Reaffirms the 2% inflation goal. | Short-term interest rates rise, while longer-term rates move less. | USD may give back some gains; gold and BTC could face some pressure but remain supported. Greater policy clarity could reduce uncertainty for equities. |
| B. Inflation-prioritising signal | Focuses on persistent inflation and says the Fed needs to see more progress before cutting rates. | Interest rates rise, especially at the short end. | USD strengthens. Gold, BTC and rate-sensitive stocks come under pressure. |
| C. Limited policy clarity | Focuses on longer-term reforms, productivity and other structural issues without giving clear guidance on rates. | Short-term rates stay steady or fall, while longer-term rates may rise. Market uncertainty increases. | USD could weaken, while gold and BTC may benefit. The impact on stocks depends on why longer-term rates rise. |
What to monitor?
Language on the 2% inflation objective and the policy rate as the primary tool; any explicit link between inflation, labour and financial conditions; framing of forward guidance and the task forces; conditions cited for the September meeting.Watch how government bond yields, the dollar, gold, Bitcoin and major US stock indexes react, with particular attention to short- and long-term interest rates.
Jackson Hole — Historical Performance Reference
| Historical Performance of Indices after Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Date | The Federal Reserve’s Stance | SPX Index | NDX Index | ||
| On the day (% Move) |
3 days % Move (after Speech) |
On the day (% Move) |
3 days % Move (after Speech) |
|||
| 2025 | 22-Aug-25 | Powell opened the door to a September rate cut, framing the shifting balance of risks — slowing employment against still-elevated inflation — as potentially warranting a policy adjustment. He also confirmed the Fed’s move away from flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT), reverting to a traditional flexible inflation targeting framework anchored at 2%. | +1.52% | +0.22% | +1.54% | +0.29% |
| 2024 | 23-Aug-24 | Powell signalled that rate cuts were likely, with timing depending on incoming data. | +1.15% | -0.75% | +1.18% | -1.88% |
| 2023 | 25-Aug-23 | Powell acknowledged progress on inflation but said it remained too high, reiterating a higher-for-longer stance. | +0.67% | +2.48% | +0.85% | +3.48% |
| 2022 | 26-Aug-22 | Powell signalled continued aggressive rate hikes to bring inflation down, even at the cost of weaker labour-market conditions. | -3.37% | -2.53% | -4.10% | -2.64% |
| 2021 | 27-Aug-21 | Powell signalled no near-term rate hikes and no immediate taper, describing inflation as transitory. | +0.88% | +0.33% | +1.01% | +1.16% |
| 2020 | 27-Aug-20 | Powell signalled the Fed would keep rates near zero and continue asset purchases until inflation ran meaningfully above target. | +0.17% | +1.21% | -0.38% | +3.07% |
| 2019 | 23-Aug-19 | Powell announced interest-rate cuts and signalled further reductions. | -2.59% | +1.43% | -3.15% | +1.65% |
| Average | Average Performance (2019–2025) | -0.22% | +0.34% | -0.44% | +0.73% | |
| Historical Performance of Other Instruments after Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Date | U.S. Dollar Index | Gold | U.S. Treasury Bond Ultra | Euro Buxl | Bitcoin | |||||
| On the day (% Move) |
3 days % Move (after Speech) |
On the day (% Move) |
3 days % Move (after Speech) |
On the day (% Move) |
3 days % Move (after Speech) |
On the day (% Move) |
3 days % Move (after Speech) |
On the day (% Move) |
3 days % Move (after Speech) |
||
| 2025 | 22-Aug-25 | -0.92% | +0.53% | +0.99% | +0.76% | +0.64% | -0.48% | +0.56% | +0.09% | +4.11% | -3.95% |
| 2024 | 23-Aug-24 | -0.78% | +0.37% | +1.12% | -0.32% | +0.59% | -0.63% | +0.24% | -0.81% | +4.95% | -6.81% |
| 2023 | 25-Aug-23 | +0.09% | -0.88% | -0.10% | +1.43% | +0.00% | +1.29% | -0.56% | +0.38% | +0.12% | +4.62% |
| 2022 | 26-Aug-22 | +0.31% | -0.09% | -1.17% | -1.56% | +0.46% | -0.91% | -0.62% | -2.06% | -4.61% | -2.20% |
| 2021 | 27-Aug-21 | -0.40% | -0.26% | +1.40% | -0.20% | +0.50% | +0.06% | -0.19% | -1.25% | +4.01% | -1.33% |
| 2020 | 27-Aug-20 | -0.01% | -0.71% | -1.28% | +2.11% | -1.68% | +1.80% | -0.69% | +0.41% | -2.14% | +6.70% |
| 2019 | 23-Aug-19 | -0.54% | +0.58% | +1.93% | +0.79% | +1.48% | +1.46% | +0.47% | +2.36% | +1.76% | -6.68% |
| Average | -0.32% | -0.07% | +0.41% | +0.43% | +0.28% | +0.37% | -0.11% | -0.13% | +1.17% | -1.38% | |
Notes on the data.
Risks
Risks and Assumptions related to Back-tested trading strategies
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تنظمها هيئة الأوراق المالية والسلع
سنشري للاستشارات المالي ش.ذ.م.م
تصل إلينا:
-
دبي
الطابق رقم 6, مبنى رقم 4, ساحة إعمار دبي
وسط مدينة دبي، ص.ب: 65777،
دبي، الإمارات العربية المتحدة -
Abu Dhabi
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ينطوي التداول في المنتجات المالية على مخاطر كبيرة. فالاعتماد على المشتقات المالية المتاحة للتداول خارح البورصة، مثل عقود الفروقات وتداول العملات الأجنبية (الفوركس) الفوري، قد يتسبب في خسائر تتجاوز قيمة الإيداعات الأولية، مما يجعلها غير ملائمة لجميع المستثمرين. فهذه الأدوات المالية المعقدة لا تمنح ملكية مباشرة للأصول الأساسية. لذا، ينبغي للمستثمرين الاحتراز عند تحديد أهدافهم الاستثمارية ومراعاة مستوى المخاطرة المتوقَع، واللجوء إلى الاستشارة المهنية المتخصصة عند الضرورة.
سنشري للإستشارات والتحليل المالي ش.ذ.م.م (الشركة)، شركة مرخّصة ومنظمة من هيئة الأوراق المالية والسلع في دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة، بموجب الترخيص رقم (20200000028) و(301044) لتولي أعمال الوساطة في الأسواق الدولية، وتداول المشتقات المالية والعملات المتاحة للتداول خارج البورصة في سوق التداول الفوري، بالإضافة إلى تقديم الخدمات الاستشارية والترويجية. تأسست الشركة بموجب قوانين دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة، وهي مسجلة لدى دائرة التنمية الاقتصادية بدبي (رقم: 768189)، حيث يقع مكتبها المسجّل في 601، الطابق السادس، المبنى رقم 4، ميدان إعمار، وسط مدينة دبي، دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة، ص.ب. 65777.
لا يُعرَض محتوى هذا الموقع الإلكتروني إلا لأغراض تعريفية تثقيفية بحتة، فلا يمثل عرضًا ولا توصيةً ولا دعوةً لشراء أو بيع أي أوراق مالية أو منتجات مالية.
لا تنوي الشركة استخدام أو توزيع منتجاتها وخدماتها في أي ولاية قضائية حيث يُشكِّل هذا الاستخدام أو التوزيع انتهاكًا للقوانين المحلية أو اللوائح التنظيمية.
